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GCSE Mathematics · key term
A probability calculated from a mathematical model of the possible outcomes, rather than from experimental results.
Used by AQA, Edexcel and OCR
Specification P3, P5, P7 · Paper 1, Paper 2, Paper 3
A probability calculated from a model of the possible outcomes, rather than from observed results.
Revise: Relative FrequencyA theoretical probability comes from what we know about the possible outcomes.
A probability calculated from a model of the possible outcomes, rather than from results collected in an experiment.
A relative frequency is based on results already observed. Do not describe it as the exact theoretical probability unless there is a separate reason to know that probability.
A larger number of trials generally gives a more reliable estimate, but the relative frequency need not get closer to the theoretical probability after every additional trial.
Describe the pattern as a tendency: a larger unbiased sample is generally more reliable, but its relative frequency need not get closer to the theoretical probability at every step.
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A probability found from a mathematical model of all possible outcomes rather than from experimental results.
Specification P3, P5, P7 · Paper 1, Paper 2, Paper 3
Revise: Relative Expected FrequenciesA theoretical probability comes from a mathematical model of the situation.
A probability calculated from a mathematical model, such as equally likely outcomes for a fair die.
A probability calculated from a mathematical model of all possible outcomes rather than from experimental results.
Specification 11.01c, 11.02a · Paper 1 (Foundation), Paper 2 (Foundation), Paper 3 (Foundation), Paper 4 (Higher), Paper 5 (Higher), Paper 6 (Higher)
A probability calculated from a mathematical model of an experiment, rather than from its recorded results.
Revise: Frequency and ProbabilitySometimes a model gives a theoretical probability before any trials are carried out.
The probability calculated from all possible outcomes rather than estimated from experimental results.