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Forecasting where and when a hazard may occur and how severe it may be.

Using evidence to estimate where or when a hazard may occur and how severe it could be.

Prediction uses monitoring evidence to estimate what may happen. Volcanic warning signs can allow scientists to identify an increased likelihood of eruption. Authorities can then restrict access to dangerous areas and arrange evacuation before an eruption begins.

Distinguish monitoring, which collects evidence, from prediction, which uses evidence to estimate what may happen.

Keep monitoring and prediction distinct: monitoring observes the storm; prediction forecasts its likely path and strength.

Distinguish prediction from early warning: detecting an earthquake that has already started is not predicting it.

A forecast of where and when a hazard event will occur, and how large it will be. Earthquakes cannot currently be predicted accurately in this way.

Accurate earthquake prediction would tell people the location, timing and magnitude of an earthquake before it begins. This is not currently possible. Scientists can identify high-risk areas and monitor ground movement, helping governments decide where stronger buildings and emergency plans are needed.

An attempt to establish when and where a hazard event will occur, and how large it will be, before it begins.

Prediction would mean establishing an earthquake’s location, timing and size before it happens. Accurate earthquake prediction is not currently possible, so people cannot depend on a forecast to tell them when to leave a building.

Prediction

Definition

How each exam board covers it

AQA GCSE Geography · 8035

Exam tips

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Edexcel GCSE Geography B · 1GB0

OCR GCSE Geography B · J384