Causes, Effects and Responses to an Ageing Population

What population ageing means

An ageing population is one in which older people form an increasing share of the population. It describes a change in age structure, rather than simply population growth. A country can grow in population while also ageing, or become older without growing overall.

People aged 65 and over are often used as an older-age group in population statistics. However, being over 65 does not automatically mean being retired, in poor health or dependent on other people.

Why the UK population is ageing

Two important causes work together: more people survive to older ages, while lower fertility reduces the relative size of younger generations.

Declining mortality means that people face a lower risk of dying at particular ages. More therefore survive into later life, increasing life expectancy. The 2016-based UK estimates of life expectancy at birth were approximately 79.2 years for males and 82.9 years for females. These are estimates based on mortality rates, not predictions of how long every individual will live.

Fertility has also fallen compared with the 1960s. When successive generations have fewer children, the younger population becomes smaller relative to the older population. Population ageing therefore reflects both longer survival and the history of births: people born decades ago move through the age structure together.

Immigration can slow ageing because immigrants tend to be younger, working-age adults. It is not a permanent solution on its own: migrants also grow older, and the fertility patterns of later generations tend to become more similar to those of the UK population.

Where older populations are concentrated

The spatial distribution of ageing concerns differences in age structure between places. The key comparison is usually the proportion of residents who are older, rather than just their number. A large city could contain more older people than a small town but still have a younger population overall.

In mid-2019, higher proportions of people aged 65 and over were found particularly in the South West, along England’s south and east coasts, along Scotland’s west coast, and in central and western Wales. Rural and coastal areas generally had older populations than major cities. This is a broad pattern, not a rule applying to every settlement.

The four UK countries also differed. In 2019, people aged 65 and over made up 21% of Wales’s population, compared with 19.1% in Scotland, 18.4% in England and 16.6% in Northern Ireland. Wales therefore had the oldest population by this measure, while Northern Ireland had the youngest.

Named places make the rural–urban contrast clearer. North Norfolk had a median age of 54.3 years in mid-2019, whereas Oxford had a median age of 28.9 years. Median age is the midpoint of the age distribution: half the population is younger and half is older. Oxford’s large student population helps explain its younger age structure. Across London boroughs, the average proportion aged 65 and over was 12.1% in 2019, below the UK figure of 18.5%.

Why the spatial pattern develops

Retirement migration helps concentrate older residents in rural and coastal areas. Older people often move away from major cities towards these areas, including places near National Parks and attractive landscapes. For example, South Lakeland includes parts of the Lake District and Yorkshire Dales National Parks and was among the local authorities with particularly old populations. In the year ending June 2019, London had a net outflow of 11,366 people aged 65 and over to other parts of the UK: more older people left than arrived.

Cities can have younger populations because students and younger adults form a larger share of their residents, while older residents move out. Births also affect the balance between age groups. Northern Ireland’s relatively high fertility helps explain its younger population, although falling fertility and more people surviving into old age mean it is ageing too.

Life expectancy also varies geographically. In England in 2014–2016, males in the most deprived areas were expected to live 9.4 years less than those in the least deprived areas; the female difference was 7.4 years. Such inequalities matter when planning health services and considering longer working lives. Life expectancy alone, however, does not determine a place’s percentage of older residents: births and migration also shape its age structure.

Pressures on public services and families

An older population can increase demand for the NHS and social care. Some people need more medical treatment or help with everyday activities as they age. This creates pressure on funding, staff and care provision, although older people’s needs vary greatly.

These pressures differ between places. In sparsely populated rural areas, older residents may have to travel considerable distances to reach essential services. An area with a high proportion of older residents therefore needs to consider both the amount of care available and how easily people can reach it.

More people receiving pensions can also increase public expenditure. If the number of pensioners grows relative to the working-age population, there may be fewer potential workers and taxpayers for each pensioner. Governments must decide how to fund this through taxation, spending choices or changes to pensions.

Families may provide informal care, meaning unpaid support for relatives. This can reduce demand for paid care, but it can also reduce carers’ time for employment or other responsibilities.

Ageing brings opportunities as well as pressures. Older people volunteer, support local communities, spend money in businesses and may provide childcare for grandchildren. Some remain in paid work: UK employment rates among people aged 65 and over doubled between 1993 and 2018. Their contribution is therefore much wider than pension payments alone suggest.

Responding to an older population

Raising State Pension age delays eligibility for the State Pension. It can reduce pension expenditure compared with keeping the age unchanged and may encourage longer working lives. The gradual rise in women’s State Pension age began in 2010. However, delaying pension eligibility does not guarantee that everyone can remain employed, particularly where health is poor.

Encouraging retirement saving helps people build an income for later life. Automatic enrolment into workplace pensions began in 2012: eligible employees are enrolled rather than having to join actively, although they can opt out. This increased workplace pension participation, but investment-based pension values can rise or fall.

Increasing healthcare and social-care provision can help meet greater demand for treatment and everyday support. This addresses people’s needs directly, but requires funding and staff. Knowing where older populations are concentrated helps planners decide where provision is most needed.

Responses can involve trade-offs. For example, working for longer may increase someone’s earnings and tax contributions but leave less time to care for relatives or grandchildren. A successful response must consider both public finances and older people’s different circumstances.