Every time you boil a kettle, you are adding to a global energy demand that is rising at an unprecedented rate. Global demand for food, energy, and water is surging. This increase is driven by three main interconnected factors: population growth (reaching 8 billion globally in 2022), rising standard of living (creating a "new global middle class"), and rapid industrialisation alongside urbanisation.
While all regions are experiencing growth, the reasons for this increased resource demand vary significantly depending on a country's level of economic development.
In Low-Income Countries (LICs), such as those in Sub-Saharan Africa, demand is primarily driven by population growth. Africa is projected to have the highest population growth rate between 2015 and 2060, increasing the need for basic food and water. In contrast, High-Income Countries (HICs) like the USA have stable populations, but historical wealth means resource consumption remains disproportionately high. The USA accounts for roughly 4.2% of the global population but consumes 16% of global energy.
However, the most significant driver of rising global demand is increasing wealth in Emerging Economies (NEEs) like China and India. As these nations industrialise and GDP grows, their populations experience a nutrition transition. Diets shift from basic cereals to resource-intensive meat and dairy. Producing 1 kg of beef requires roughly 7 kg of grain, multiplying land and water requirements far faster than population growth alone.
Furthermore, urbanisation concentrates demand. In India, 20 million people migrate to urban areas annually, severely straining piped water and electricity networks in megacities. Therefore, rising affluence and industrialisation in NEEs carry a heavier weight in accelerating global demand than population growth in LICs.
Thomas Malthus (1798) proposed a pessimistic theory regarding population and resources. He argued that population grows through exponential growth (1, 2, 4, 8, 16...), whereas food supply only increases through arithmetic or (1, 2, 3, 4, 5...).
Malthus predicted a Malthusian catastrophe, where the population outstrips food supply, leading to a sudden population crash (dieback) caused by famine, war, or disease. Neo-Malthusians argue modern issues like severe water scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa support this view.
In contrast, Ester Boserup (1965) took an optimistic view, arguing that "necessity is the mother of invention." Boserup theorised that as population grows and approaches limits, humans will develop technological innovation to increase resources through agricultural intensification. A key historical example is the Green Revolution of the 1960s, which used high-yield varieties, irrigation, and fertilisers to boost Asian cereal yields by over 200%.
To understand future resource pressure, geographers use trend analysis and data extrapolation on population and resource line graphs.
When describing patterns on a graph, follow the TEA structure:
Data extrapolation involves extending the trend line beyond the last known data point to predict future values. This is how population projections are created. Organisations like the UN use different scenarios, or variants:
When analysing these graphs, look for the carrying capacity—the point of intersection where the population demand curve crosses the resource supply line. Note that the "widening gap" between variants over time indicates increasing uncertainty in the extrapolation.
A region's domestic water demand was in 2000. Due to rapid industrialisation and rising standards of living, demand is projected to reach by 2030. Calculate the percentage increase in water demand.
Step 1: Find the difference (increase) in demand.
Step 2: Divide the increase by the original value.
Step 3: Multiply by 100 and round to one decimal place.
Students often confuse 'linear' and 'exponential' growth when describing Malthus's theory; remember that Malthus believed food grows linearly (1, 2, 3, 4) but population grows exponentially (1, 2, 4, 8).
For 8-mark 'Assess' questions on this topic, examiners expect you to weigh the factors: conclude that rising wealth in emerging economies is often the most significant driver because it drastically changes resource-intensive lifestyle habits.
When using the 'TEA' method for trend analysis, always include the units (e.g., km³ or kcal) when providing evidence from the graph.
If asked to evaluate Boserup's optimistic theory, make sure to mention the negative environmental costs of agricultural intensification, such as chemical runoff or soil erosion, as a counter-argument.
When discussing data extrapolation, mention that projections become more uncertain the further into the future they look, evidenced by the spreading lines of the high, medium, and low variants.
Standard of living
The level of wealth, comfort, material goods, and necessities available to a certain socioeconomic class or area.
Industrialisation
The process of transforming an economy from primarily agricultural to manufacturing-based.
Urbanisation
The increase in the proportion of people living in towns and cities.
Resource demand
The total amount of food, water, and energy required by a population.
Emerging Economy (NEE)
A country experiencing rapid economic growth, usually through industrialisation, such as China or India.
Nutrition transition
A shift in dietary consumption coinciding with economic development, typically moving from cereals to high-fat, high-protein diets.
Exponential growth
Growth whose rate becomes ever more rapid in proportion to the growing total number or size.
Linear growth
Growth that proceeds at a constant rate over time (e.g., 1, 2, 3, 4).
Malthusian catastrophe
The point where population exceeds food supply, leading to a sudden population decline through famine, disease, or war.
Technological innovation
The development of new tools, ideas, or methods to solve problems and increase efficiency.
Agricultural intensification
Increasing food production from the same area of land through the use of technology, such as fertilisers or irrigation.
Green Revolution
A large increase in crop production in developing countries achieved by the use of fertilisers, pesticides, and high-yield crop varieties in the 1960s.
Trend analysis
The process of identifying patterns in data over time, often using the 'TEA' method (Trend, Evidence, Anomaly).
Data extrapolation
Estimating a value outside the known range by extending a known trend or pattern into the future.
Population projections
Estimates of future population size and composition based on varying assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration.
Principal Projection
The 'Medium' variant of population growth scenarios, used as the primary basis for planning.
Resource deficit
A situation where the demand for resources exceeds the available supply.
Carrying capacity
The maximum number of people an environment can support sustainably without degrading the resource base.
Put your knowledge into practice — try past paper questions for Geography B
Standard of living
The level of wealth, comfort, material goods, and necessities available to a certain socioeconomic class or area.
Industrialisation
The process of transforming an economy from primarily agricultural to manufacturing-based.
Urbanisation
The increase in the proportion of people living in towns and cities.
Resource demand
The total amount of food, water, and energy required by a population.
Emerging Economy (NEE)
A country experiencing rapid economic growth, usually through industrialisation, such as China or India.
Nutrition transition
A shift in dietary consumption coinciding with economic development, typically moving from cereals to high-fat, high-protein diets.
Exponential growth
Growth whose rate becomes ever more rapid in proportion to the growing total number or size.
Linear growth
Growth that proceeds at a constant rate over time (e.g., 1, 2, 3, 4).
Malthusian catastrophe
The point where population exceeds food supply, leading to a sudden population decline through famine, disease, or war.
Technological innovation
The development of new tools, ideas, or methods to solve problems and increase efficiency.
Agricultural intensification
Increasing food production from the same area of land through the use of technology, such as fertilisers or irrigation.
Green Revolution
A large increase in crop production in developing countries achieved by the use of fertilisers, pesticides, and high-yield crop varieties in the 1960s.
Trend analysis
The process of identifying patterns in data over time, often using the 'TEA' method (Trend, Evidence, Anomaly).
Data extrapolation
Estimating a value outside the known range by extending a known trend or pattern into the future.
Population projections
Estimates of future population size and composition based on varying assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration.
Principal Projection
The 'Medium' variant of population growth scenarios, used as the primary basis for planning.
Resource deficit
A situation where the demand for resources exceeds the available supply.
Carrying capacity
The maximum number of people an environment can support sustainably without degrading the resource base.