Population and Social Development Factors

India: development changes people’s lives

India is an emerging country whose economic growth has been accompanied by changes in health, education and family size. These changes also influence further development: a healthier, better-educated population can work more productively, while household incomes affect access to education and healthcare.

The period from 1990 to 2023 provides an approximately thirty-year comparison. National averages show substantial improvements, but they conceal differences between regions, income groups and men and women.

From a very youthful population towards more working-age adults

Population structure describes the population’s composition by age and sex. Around 1990, India had a very youthful population: large numbers of children depended on a smaller working-age population, while relatively few people survived to old age.

In some families, children contributed to work and were expected to support their parents later in life. Limited access to education, family planning and healthcare also helped maintain large families.

India’s fertility rate fell from about 4.04 children per woman in 1990 to 2.13 in 2023. Several connected changes explain this decline. Better education and greater opportunities for women to work can encourage later parenthood and smaller families. Family planning provides more choice over when to have children. Urbanisation also matters: urban homes often have less space, and children are less likely to contribute directly to household production than in farming families.

As smaller generations of children follow larger generations into adulthood, the balance shifts towards working-age people. Longer lives also increase the number surviving into older age. India remains populous and continues to grow: a lower fertility rate does not immediately stop population growth because there are still many people of childbearing age.

On a population pyramid, these changes would be recognised through a less broad base relative to the working-age groups and more people in older age groups. Compare the proportions, rather than assuming that a smaller share of children means fewer children in total.

Why the dependency ratio matters

The dependency ratio compares children and older people with the working-age population:

$$\text{Dependency ratio} = \frac{\text{children + older people}}{\text{working-age people}} \times 100$$

India’s ratio fell from about 73% in 1990 to 47.5% in 2022. This means a change from about 73 dependants per 100 working-age people to about 48.

A larger working-age share creates an opportunity for development. If people have suitable jobs, more workers can earn incomes and pay taxes, helping fund schools, healthcare and pensions. This potential benefit is sometimes called a demographic dividend. It is not automatic: education and employment opportunities are needed to make use of the growing workforce. Age groups are also only a guide to economic dependence—not every working-age person has a job.

Longer lives and better health

Life expectancy rose from approximately 57 years in 1990 to 72 years in 2023. This is an increase of about 15 years, not a guarantee that each individual will live to 72.

Improved medical care and vaccination reduce deaths from disease. Better sanitation and access to cleaner water reduce exposure to water-borne infections, while improved diets support health. Falling infant mortality also helps raise average life expectancy.

Longer lives improve wellbeing and allow more people to remain active for longer. Over time, however, a growing older population increases demand for healthcare and support. Rural areas can face particular difficulties when younger adults migrate to cities, leaving older relatives with less nearby family support.

Education and women’s opportunities

India’s literacy rate rose from about 48% in 1990 to 76% in 2023, alongside investment in schools and improved access to education. Primary education became free in 2009. The National Education Policy launched in 2020 aimed to improve education and equality of access.

Education develops skills and improves employability. Access to skilled work can raise earnings, helping families afford better housing, food and healthcare. Educated women also have greater opportunities to earn an independent income and make decisions about careers and family size. Entrepreneurship training can spread benefits when women pass their skills on to others.

Progress is uneven. Female literacy remains below male literacy, poorer women still face barriers, and children who work may miss schooling. Improved national literacy therefore does not mean equal educational opportunities for everyone.

A growing middle class, but increasing economic inequality

Urbanisation, education and changes in employment have helped India develop a growing middle class. More households can spend beyond basic necessities, creating demand for goods and services. This consumer market supports businesses and further employment.

Economic growth nevertheless coexists with increasing inequality. World Inequality Lab research published in 2024 found that India’s economic inequality began rising after the early 1980s and increased sharply from the early 2000s. Wealth became particularly concentrated at the top between 2014–15 and 2022–23. By 2022–23, the richest 1% received an estimated 22.6% of national income and held 40.1% of national wealth—the highest shares in the study’s historical series.

Income is money received over time, whereas wealth is accumulated assets, such as property and savings, minus debts. These estimates show that a small group holds a much larger share of economic resources than its share of the population. They are estimates rather than exact counts: limitations in India’s economic data mean that the true level of inequality may be higher.

People with qualifications and access to well-paid urban work are better placed to benefit from growth than those with limited schooling or insecure employment. If advantages accumulate faster for better-off groups, inequality can increase even while average living standards rise. A growing middle class therefore does not mean that the gap between the richest and the rest is narrowing.

Why national improvements do not benefit everyone equally

Regional contrasts make uneven development concrete. Delhi has a literacy rate of about 86%, compared with about 70% in Bihar. Delhi attracts workers through its employment opportunities, while poor infrastructure and recurring floods make development more difficult in Bihar. Migration can also remove working-age people from poorer areas.

Rapid urban growth does not provide good housing and secure work for every arrival. Informal settlements may lack clean water and adequate sanitation, limiting health improvements. India’s overall progress must therefore be judged alongside who gains access to its benefits: a growing middle class and improving opportunities for women can occur at the same time as increasing economic inequality.

Population change: approximately 1990–2023

• Fertility: 4.04 → 2.13 children per woman. Education, women’s employment, family planning and urbanisation encourage smaller families.
• Structure: smaller child share, larger working-age share and more people surviving into old age.
• Dependency ratio: 73% in 1990 → 47.5% in 2022. More potential workers per dependant; benefits depend on jobs and skills.
• Lower fertility does not immediately stop population growth.

Health

• Life expectancy: about 57 → 72 years.
• Reasons: vaccination, better healthcare, sanitation, cleaner water and improved diets.
• Longer lives improve wellbeing but increase future demand for healthcare and older-age support.

Social change

• Literacy: 48% in 1990 → 76% in 2023.
• Education improves employability, earnings and women’s choices.
• 2009: free primary education; 2020: National Education Policy.
• Growing middle class → greater consumer spending → business and employment opportunities.
• Economic inequality increased sharply from the early 2000s. In 2022–23, the richest 1% received an estimated 22.6% of income and held 40.1% of wealth.
• Benefits remain unequal: gender barriers, insecure work and poorer rural infrastructure persist.
• Regional contrast: literacy approximately 86% in Delhi versus 70% in Bihar.

Overall judgement

National health and education have improved, but averages conceal unequal access to development. Improving gender opportunities and a growing middle class can coexist with increasing economic inequality.