Global Urbanisation Trends

Two measurements help us compare countries. The level of urbanisation is the percentage of people living in urban areas at a particular time. The rate of urbanisation describes how quickly that percentage is increasing. A country can therefore be highly urbanised but urbanising slowly.

Urban population growth is slightly different: it means an increase in the number of urban residents. If urban and rural populations grow at the same rate, the urban population increases but its proportion of the total remains unchanged.

Contrasting trends over the last 50 years

Over roughly the last half-century, the world has become increasingly urban, but countries have not followed the same timetable.

Developed countries, such as the UK and Germany, already had high levels of urbanisation by the 1970s. Much of their rural-to-urban movement had occurred during earlier industrialisation. Their urban share has generally increased more slowly since then, partly because a large proportion of their population already lives in towns and cities. Some people have also moved out of cities into rural settlements: counter-urbanisation.

Emerging countries, such as China and India, have experienced rapid urbanisation as manufacturing and other urban industries have expanded. Cities attract investment and workers, so their urban populations and urban shares have grown. However, emerging countries have different starting points: they should not all be assumed to have the same level of urbanisation.

Developing countries, including Ethiopia and Rwanda, often have lower starting levels of urbanisation but very fast rates of change. Employment, investment and services are concentrated in major cities, encouraging migration from rural areas. Natural increase also contributes to rapid urban population growth.

The key contrast is therefore between high urban levels with slower recent change in many developed countries and lower starting levels with faster recent change in many emerging and developing countries. These are broad patterns; rates also vary between cities within the same country.

Why urbanisation began earlier in developed countries

The UK's Industrial Revolution during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries helps explain the timing of urbanisation. Mechanisation reduced the number of workers needed on farms, while factories created jobs in towns and cities. People moved towards these new sources of employment.

These changes combined a push factor, reducing rural employment, with a pull factor, the availability of urban factory work. As the economy became more industrial, a larger proportion of the population lived in urban settlements.

Today, developed countries generally have slower urbanisation because this major shift has already happened. Good transport and communications also allow some people to live in rural areas while commuting to urban jobs or working from home. This helps explain why a prosperous country does not necessarily have a rapidly rising urban percentage.

Why many emerging and developing countries are urbanising rapidly

In emerging countries, industrial investment creates a strong urban pull. Some manufacturing has moved from developed countries to locations offering cheaper labour and incentives for businesses. Factory employment and related services attract rural migrants. Shanghai in China and Mumbai in India illustrate the importance of major urban centres in these changing economies.

In developing countries, new economic opportunities are often concentrated in the largest cities. People may move in the hope of finding work, education and better access to services. Their expectations do not guarantee that suitable jobs or housing will be available when they arrive.

Migration is not the only source of urban growth. Natural increase occurs when births exceed deaths. Young adults moving into cities may later have children there, adding to the urban population. This can reinforce migration-led growth. However, natural increase raises the urban proportion only if urban population growth is faster than rural population growth; births alone are not automatically urbanisation.

How the speed of growth affects cities

Urbanisation can bring economic benefits. Concentrated populations provide customers and workers, encouraging businesses to invest. Investment creates jobs, attracting more people and businesses. This reinforcing cycle is called a multiplier effect. Providing infrastructure and services to people living close together can also be cheaper than serving widely scattered settlements.

The difficulties become especially severe when population growth is faster than the provision of housing, jobs and services. A shortage of affordable housing can lead to informal settlements, sometimes called shanty towns. These may lack reliable water supplies, sanitation and other basic infrastructure. The issue is not simply that a city is large, but that its capacity has not kept pace with its growth.

Increasing traffic and industrial activity can worsen air pollution, while inadequate waste disposal and sanitation can contribute to water pollution. Rapid growth can also deepen inequality: some residents benefit from investment and well-serviced housing, while others have insecure work and poor living conditions.

Slower-growing cities are not free of problems, but usually face less sudden pressure from new arrivals. In developed countries, outward movement and urban sprawl can instead extend settlements into surrounding rural land. Overall, the effects depend on both the speed of growth and how effectively investment and planning meet people's needs.