AQA GCSE Geography (8035) — Challenges in the human environment
Did you know that for most of human history, almost everyone lived in the countryside, but today you are statistically more likely to be a city-dweller? In 2010, the world crossed a major threshold: for the first time, more people lived in urban areas than in rural ones.
Today, approximately 57% of the global population (4.61 billion people) lives in urban areas, compared to 43% in rural areas. This process is called urbanisation. The UN predicts this will rise to 60% by 2030 and 70% by 2050, with Asia contributing 60% of all global urban growth by 2030.
However, the pattern of urbanisation is not uniform across the globe. We can compare the trends between different types of countries:
| Feature | HICs (High Income Countries) | LICs (Low Income Countries) & NEEs (Newly Emerging Economies) |
|---|---|---|
| Total Level of Urbanisation | Very high (81% in 2021). | Lower (34% in LICs, 54% in NEEs in 2021). |
| Rate of Urban Growth | Slowing down. Some cities even experience counter-urbanisation. | Very fast. Rapid acceleration due to modern industrialisation. |
This rapid growth in LICs and a Newly Emerging Economy (NEE) has led to an explosion of megacities. In 1950, there were only two megacities globally (New York and Tokyo). By 2018, there were 33, and it is estimated there will be 43-50 by 2030. Importantly, 80% of these megacities are now located in LICs and NEEs (e.g., Mumbai, Cairo, and Lagos).
Why do thousands of people pack up their lives to move to bustling, overcrowded cities every single day? Urban growth in LICs and NEEs is driven by two main mechanisms: natural increase and migration.
Natural Increase Natural increase accounts for approximately 60% of urban growth in LICs and NEEs. It is driven by the fact that migrants arriving in cities are predominantly young adults (typically aged 18-35). Because this demographic is of childbearing age, city birth rates spike.
Simultaneously, death rates in urban areas are falling much faster than in rural areas because cities offer better access to vaccinations, cleaner water, and medical services.
Worked Example: Calculating Natural Increase in Lagos
Formula:
Step 1: Identify the demographic data for Lagos.
Step 2: Substitute into the formula.
Step 3: Convert to a percentage.
Conclusion: Lagos has a natural population growth of per year.
Rural-to-Urban Migration Rural-to-urban migration is the physical movement of people from the countryside to the city. This is driven by a combination of negative push factors forcing people away from rural homes, and positive pull factors drawing them towards urban centres.
If a single city can generate 30% of a country's entire wealth while holding only 10% of its population, just how important is its physical location? Lagos, located in Nigeria (an NEE), is a prime example of a city shaped by its geography.
Site and Situation The site of Lagos is located in southwest Nigeria on the coast of the Gulf of Guinea. It was originally built on a series of low-lying islands (such as Lagos Island and Victoria Island) and a sheltered lagoon. Because it is only 1.5m above sea level, it is highly prone to flooding, which forces new urban growth north and west onto the mainland. Its situation places it approximately 500 km southwest of Abuja (the national capital) and 50 km from the border with Benin.
Analysing the Importance of Lagos Lagos is growing by 600,000 to 1.1 million people annually (an influx of 2,000 to 3,000 people per day). We can analyse its significance across three distinct scales:
Students often define rural-to-urban migration using the words 'rural' and 'urban'. Instead, you must state it is the movement of people from the countryside to towns or cities to secure the mark.
When explaining natural increase, you must explicitly link the high birth rate to the migration of young people (aged 18-35); simply stating 'there are more births than deaths' is too basic for full marks.
When asked to 'compare' urbanisation trends, always distinguish between the total percentage of urban dwellers (which is highest in HICs) and the rate or speed of urban growth (which is fastest in LICs and NEEs).
In 6-mark or 9-mark questions asking you to analyse the importance of a city like Lagos, examiners expect you to structure your answer by explicitly categorising your points into regional, national, and international scales.
Urbanisation
The process by which an increasing percentage or proportion of a country's population comes to live in towns and cities.
Newly Emerging Economy (NEE)
A country that is developing rapidly, usually through industrialisation, such as Nigeria or Brazil.
Counter-urbanisation
The movement of people from towns and cities back out to rural areas, typically observed in High Income Countries (HICs).
Megacity
An urban area or city with a total population in excess of 10 million people.
Natural Increase
The population growth that occurs when the birth rate is higher than the death rate.
Rural-to-urban migration
The movement of people from the countryside to towns and cities.
Push Factors
Negative conditions or events that drive people away from their current home.
Pull Factors
Positive characteristics or perceived opportunities that attract people to a new location.
Site
The actual physical land that a settlement or city is built upon.
Situation
The location of a place relative to its surroundings and other places.
Global City (World City)
A city that exerts significant influence over international trade, finance, and culture.
Multiplier Effect
A process where an initial investment (like a new port or factory) creates jobs and services, leading to further economic growth and development.
Put your knowledge into practice — try past paper questions for Geography
Urbanisation
The process by which an increasing percentage or proportion of a country's population comes to live in towns and cities.
Newly Emerging Economy (NEE)
A country that is developing rapidly, usually through industrialisation, such as Nigeria or Brazil.
Counter-urbanisation
The movement of people from towns and cities back out to rural areas, typically observed in High Income Countries (HICs).
Megacity
An urban area or city with a total population in excess of 10 million people.
Natural Increase
The population growth that occurs when the birth rate is higher than the death rate.
Rural-to-urban migration
The movement of people from the countryside to towns and cities.
Push Factors
Negative conditions or events that drive people away from their current home.
Pull Factors
Positive characteristics or perceived opportunities that attract people to a new location.
Site
The actual physical land that a settlement or city is built upon.
Situation
The location of a place relative to its surroundings and other places.
Global City (World City)
A city that exerts significant influence over international trade, finance, and culture.
Multiplier Effect
A process where an initial investment (like a new port or factory) creates jobs and services, leading to further economic growth and development.
